Be Less Wrong: A Mental Model
Elon Musk’s thought-provoking advice on approaching problems
What are the odds that your solution to a particular problem is the perfect solution?
That you are 100% right.
And I’m not talking 2+2 Math problems but real-world problems with many variables and many degrees of freedom.
Logically it’s 0.
If there are an infinite number of ways to approach the problem, then the odds you picked the winning lottery ticket are infinitesimally small. They tend to 0.
So we have established that your solution is somewhat wrong. Given this information what should we do?
Question everything (including the problem statement itself).
If we take the view that everything in our system is somewhat wrong and our job is to make it less wrong it opens up some interesting debates.
These include questioning our constraints and the problem statement itself.
Our constraints are sometimes self-imposed and sometimes come from external sources (ie our boss). In either situation, the constraints themselves will be somewhat wrong as well. Question them and understand why they are there.
With regards to the question remember, “A question well stated is half solved”. We often solve the wrong problem.
A good approach to get to the root of a problem is the 5 whys. Try asking this simple question, why?, 5 times in a row, you’ll be amazed at how much new information comes out of it.
When everything in the system is wrong there are no sacred cows, everything can be improved or discarded. We often optimise a part/process that either doesn’t add real value or doesn’t need to exist.
Next time you have to solve a problem, think about being less wrong. Try to get to the root cause of the issue. Don’t be afraid to challenge firmly held beliefs and constantly ask questions.
Being “Less Wrong” has enabled Elon Musk to build Tesla when nobody said it was economically feasible and create rockets that land themselves when many were saying it wasn’t physically possible.
The “Be less wrong” line comes from an interview Elon Musk gave to the “Everyday Astronaut” in 2019. Check it out here, 1:52 - 6:22.
